2026 World Cup Win Probability
Complete round-by-round progression probabilities for every team. Based on 100 Monte Carlo simulations, these figures show the likelihood of each nation reaching each tournament stage—not guaranteed outcomes.
Key Highlights
- 1.Argentina leads with a 14.0% championship probability
- 2.Brazil leads with a 12.0% championship probability
- 3.France leads with a 11.0% championship probability
Tournament Win Probabilities
| # | Team | Win | Final | SF | QF | R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina | 14% | 22% | 32% | 46% | 73% |
| 2 | Brazil | 12% | 19% | 31% | 43% | 63% |
| 3 | France | 11% | 18% | 27% | 39% | 68% |
| 4 | Germany | 10% | 14% | 24% | 36% | 65% |
| 5 | England | 5% | 11% | 16% | 29% | 52% |
| 6 | Senegal | 4% | 6% | 7% | 20% | 30% |
| 7 | Netherlands | 3% | 4% | 8% | 15% | 35% |
| 8 | Ghana | 3% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 27% |
| 9 | South Africa | 3% | 5% | 11% | 23% | 45% |
| 10 | Cape Verde Islands | 3% | 7% | 10% | 16% | 33% |
| 11 | Belgium | 2% | 5% | 9% | 16% | 38% |
| 12 | Scotland | 2% | 4% | 7% | 17% | 36% |
| 13 | Switzerland | 2% | 8% | 16% | 26% | 45% |
| 14 | Ivory Coast | 2% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 35% |
| 15 | Mexico | 2% | 5% | 11% | 27% | 49% |
| 16 | South Korea | 2% | 5% | 10% | 17% | 34% |
| 17 | Australia | 2% | 2% | 6% | 14% | 32% |
| 18 | Ecuador | 2% | 4% | 4% | 17% | 36% |
| 19 | Tunisia | 2% | 2% | 9% | 19% | 36% |
| 20 | Croatia | 2% | 2% | 7% | 17% | 30% |
| 21 | Morocco | 2% | 3% | 6% | 15% | 35% |
| 22 | Curacao | 2% | 3% | 13% | 22% | 41% |
| 23 | Austria | 2% | 4% | 10% | 21% | 46% |
| 24 | Spain | 2% | 3% | 9% | 14% | 29% |
| 25 | Saudi Arabia | 1% | 1% | 6% | 19% | 38% |
| 26 | United States | 1% | 1% | 5% | 18% | 33% |
| 27 | New Zealand | 1% | 2% | 7% | 18% | 36% |
| 28 | Colombia | 1% | 1% | 4% | 10% | 22% |
| 29 | Norway | 0% | 2% | 5% | 13% | 31% |
| 30 | Panama | 0% | 1% | 4% | 14% | 31% |
| 31 | Japan | 0% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 33% |
| 32 | Algeria | 0% | 2% | 5% | 9% | 24% |
| 33 | Jordan | 0% | 3% | 6% | 16% | 31% |
| 34 | Uzbekistan | 0% | 4% | 5% | 12% | 27% |
| 35 | Qatar | 0% | 3% | 10% | 17% | 36% |
| 36 | Iran | 0% | 0% | 5% | 9% | 39% |
| 37 | Paraguay | 0% | 1% | 7% | 22% | 38% |
| 38 | Haiti | 0% | 2% | 4% | 12% | 29% |
| 39 | Portugal | 0% | 1% | 3% | 19% | 41% |
| 40 | Egypt | 0% | 4% | 9% | 19% | 42% |
| 41 | Canada | 0% | 5% | 8% | 12% | 32% |
| 42 | Uruguay | 0% | 0% | 4% | 12% | 24% |
Based on 100 Monte Carlo simulations
How to Read This Table
Each column shows the probability of a team reaching at least that round of the tournament. Win is the probability of winning the Final. Final means reaching the championship match. SF, QF, and R16 represent the Semi-Finals, Quarter-Finals, and Round of 16 respectively.
Probabilities are derived from 100 Monte Carlo simulations of the complete knockout bracket.
How We Calculate These Probabilities
Probabilities are derived from team ELO ratings, Poisson distribution match modeling, and full tournament simulation. Our model simulates every possible path through the knockout bracket thousands of times to estimate round-by-round advancement chances.
Last updated: 2026-03-29T15:30:51.134Z