2026 World Cup Simulator

Tournament model, methodology, and simulation output

Simulation Methodology

Monte Carlo Engine

The simulator runs 100 iterations of the full knockout bracket. In each iteration, scheduled match outcomes are sampled from Poisson-ELO prediction probabilities. Draws are resolved by a simulated penalty shootout (50/50 coin flip).

Input Data

Match predictions are derived from ELO-based team ratings and a Poisson goal-scoring model. Finished matches use actual results deterministically. Group stage simulation results feed into knockout bracket seedings.

Simulation Parameters

Simulations

100

Model Version

mc-integrated-v1

Teams

Last Updated

3/29/2026

Data Coverage

Full Data

Knockout Matches

0 / 31 finished

Prediction Coverage

Groups Completed

12 / 12

Missing Predictions

Simulation Bracket Output

The bracket below shows the averaged simulation output across all 100 iterations. Win percentages represent the frequency with which each team advances in that matchup.